Bitcoin, altcoins and stocks rallied after a week of losses, but is the current bullish momentum sustainable?
The current rally in BTC and select altcoins could indicate the market is in the process of completing its purge even with liquidity issues being faced by Digital Currency Group and Genesis Trading being unresolved.
The stock market is also showing green candles with the Dow Jones Industrial (DJIA) posting a 0.94% gain and the S&P 500 rallying 1%. With the November jobs report releasing on Dec. 2, equities traders will look for strong growth to show market resiliency which would drive prices higher. higher.
As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin will likely remain closely correlated to U.S. equities and display the same price dynamics.
Here are three reasons why Bitcoin price rallied after a week of pain and the details of key drivers of the growth.
Bitcoin open interest remains tilted toward short traders
Since Bitcoin price crashed to $17,600 on June 18, the open interest of BTC futures contracts has been surging. Sharp price moves in Bitcoin price could trigger another liquidation event, but it is difficult to determine whether the move would be to the upside or downside.
Many traders agree that if the Federal Reserve were to pivot on its current policy of quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes, BTC price could surge to the upside and liquidate a significant portion of the short interest in futures contracts.
The FTX crash triggered a wave of liquidations which sent Bitcoin price spiraling down. Data shows that $549 million in cross-crypto longs were liquidated on Nov. 7, sending the Bitcoin price below $16,000.
Inversely, short liquidations directly help push Bitcoin price higher by forcing automated buy pressure. The current rally is seeing short open interest gaining momentum which can further help Bitcoin price.
Longer-term data is in Bitcoin’s favor, according to market analysts
Investors’ confidence in the crypto market could also be rising due to their belief that the United States Federal Reserve could roll out smaller-sized interest rate hikes in the next two months.
In the Fed’s statement, the possibility of policy shift does remain open:
“In order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”
According to MacroMicro, a firm that publishes investors’ consensus estimates on expected changes in interest rates, shows that interest rates may be lower than previously anticipated in the near future.
The graph points to a possible slowdown in the interest rate hikes. The public sentiment shows that future rates may fall and investors believe that this has created the possibility for a broad crypto market recovery.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq provide a general overview of the economy in general. Currently, Bitcoin, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 share a high correlation coefficient.
Therefore if interest rates ease and the economy grows, Bitcoin could reverse course if a similar turn-around were to take place in equities markets. The better the macro climate, the better for Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin hits a yearly low and shows signs of being oversold
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular technical analysis for measuring if Bitcoin is overbought or oversold. When the RSI is below 30, Bitcoin is considered oversold. Historically, when the RSI goes below 30, Bitcoin sees a sharp price bounce upwards.
According to Ray Salmond, Head of Markets at Cointelegraph:
"From the vantage point of technical analysis, the market (BTC especially) has been under heavy selling and typically when the relative strength index (RSI) dips to and below 30, it’s a sign of oversold conditions. Taking a look at the daily and weekly RSI, one will notice that the indicator has a high occurrence of bouncing from the oversold zone and the asset price follows. What remains to be seen is whether Bitcoin recapturing the $16,000 level turns out to be a bull trap, before the price continues lower."
While Bitcoin price is showing some bullish momentum in the short-term, the larger challenges of rising interest rates, reduced inflow and liquidity in the crypto market, and the threat of contagion from FTX’s insolvency impacting the entire market continue to weigh on BTC price.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.